The Perils of Predicting

Podcast: Stubborn Things · AEI Podcasts

Opublikowano: 2026-09-14

The midterms are in view, and Sean and Jay try not to treat the tea leaves like gospel. Although Jay got into the limelight through election blogging, he’s realized that it’s difficult to differentiate what he wants to happen and what will happen. This bias doesn’t just influence Jay but is ingrained in the practice of forecasting itself, making election predictions all the more difficult. Nevertheless, what politicians are doing now and how voters are feeling might give us a glimpse into November. Sean notes that unless you’re a wartime president or a great economy presiden...