US yields rise on strong growth expectations, not just inflation

Podcast: 🇬🇧 Stay ahead of the markets with Swissquote · Swissquote, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Feyyaz Alingan

Opublikowano: 2026-09-29

Oil prices and global yields continue to rise, putting pressure on equity valuations and supporting the US dollar. But beneath the move in US Treasuries, an interesting divergence is emerging. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate remains broadly stable around 2.3%, while real yields have risen sharply. This suggests that resilient US growth, increasingly hawkish Fed expectations and a higher real term premium – partly linked to heavy government borrowing – are playing an important role in pushing yields higher. Meanwhile, the US yield curve continues to flatten as the 2-year yield rises faster than the 10-year, raising fresh questions about a potential inversion. Coul...