The Game Was Rigged in Their Favor. 28% Went Bust Anyway | Kris Abdelmessih on How to Size Bets

Podcast: Excess Returns · Excess Returns

Opublikowano: 2026-09-29

How much of your portfolio does a good investment idea deserve? Kris Abdelmessih of Moontower joins Matt Zeigler to explain why having an edge is only part of the decision: position size can determine whether favorable odds translate into long-term growth or damaging losses. Through a coin-flipping experiment and everyday examples, Kris makes the Kelly Criterion accessible without a complicated derivation. The conversation explores the difference between expected returns and compounded wealth, why growth-maximizing bets can still be uncomfortable, and how uncertain probabilities make a case for betting less. From portfolio decisions to insurance and extended warranties...