Ep. 1990: Luck Isn’t Skill

Podcast: Talking Real Money - Investing Talk · Don McDonald

Opublikowano: 2026-10-01

One lucky streak can feel like investing genius—but anecdotes are not evidence. Don and Tom examine leveraged ETFs such as TQQQ, the brutal losses leverage can magnify, and why surviving a good run does not prove a strategy is sound. They answer a federal employee’s question about the TSP C, S, and I funds, explaining why a favorable 2003–2025 backtest cannot tell us what comes next and why diversification is still about reducing concentration risk. Then they dissect slick “hybrid pension” annuity pitches and the difference between a withdrawal rate and an investment return. Finally, they look at the other...