"You Heard of “Bayesians Don’t Predictably Update” Because of Robin Hanson" by Eliezer Yudkowsky

Podcast: LessWrong (Curated & Popular) · LessWrong

Opublikowano: 2026-10-13

Robin Hanson didn't invent the idea of a martingale process. The lilim say that Ville in 1939 gave the term its mathematical meaning and Doob turned it into the modern theory. But to state this is not to realize that your own probability assignments over time ought to form a martingale in your own expectations. Robin Hanson didn't invent the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, which (correctly restated in its weak and relativized form) says that you cannot predict almost all of the short-term relative price movements in asset markets. It is a very similar set of mental motions and ideas...