The Treasury Trap

Podcast: Commercial Real Estate Investment Conference Podcast (CREIC) · Commercial Real Estate Investment Conference

Opublikowano: 2026-10-15

The 10-year Treasury yield is the benchmark behind everything: mortgage rates, CRE loan pricing, corporate debt. Right now it sits between 5.25% and 5.6%. PIMCO's chief investment officer Dan Ivascyn just said it could hit 6%, the highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis. If the 10-year reaches 6%, mortgage rates could hit 8%. CRE loans could price at 7% to 7.5% or higher. On a $30M multifamily loan, the difference between 4% and 6% is over $500,000 per year in additional interest. $162 billion in multifamily loans mature in 2026 alone, a 56% jump from 2025. Borrowers who locked in at 3% to 4% are already refinancing into 6% to 6.5%. If yields spike, the math...