The Equity Problem

Podcast: Commercial Real Estate Investment Conference Podcast (CREIC) · Commercial Real Estate Investment Conference

Opublikowano: 2026-10-22

We're looking at two separate forces reshaping real estate math right now. Construction costs are climbing faster than rent. And refinancing equations aren't working anymore. CRED iQ analyzed $136B in multifamily debt maturing through December 2028. 23% of those loans cannot refinance without fresh equity. That's 31% of the total balance. The equity gap is $6.8B. Median shortfall is $25,000 per apartment unit. Loans written in 2021-2022 at the rate bottom are getting hammered. 46% of that cohort fall short. Old loans at 4%, new market rates 5.3-5.5%. That rate spread destroys the loan structure. Geography matters. San Francisco 70% of maturing debt falls s...